Solar market outlook

Last month, the EU Solar Market Outlook 2025–2030 report was released, revealing that 2025 was a pivotal year. It marked a historic turning point: for the first time in 10 years, the European solar market slowed down in terms of newly installed capacity. In light of this slight downturn, a review is needed: what is the current state of photovoltaics at the European level? And at the national level—does France follow the same trajectory?

One thing is certain: to foster the energy and ecological transition, it is essential to continue developing and innovating in the renewable energy sector—especially solar.

Enjoy the read! 👀

The solar boom in the European Union

Key figures

🔢 This is the first decline in the European solar market in 10 years: 65.1 GWp of new capacity installed in 2025, a slight decrease of 0.7% compared to 2024.

🔢 Solar energy supplied nearly 13.4% of EU electricity in 2025, compared with 11.6% in 2024 and 9.7% in 2023.

🔢 In terms of cumulative solar capacity, the European Union exceeded its 400 GW target by 1.6% (406 GW installed by the end of 2025).

🔢 In June 2025, photovoltaics became the EU’s leading source of electricity, accounting for 22% of the power mix.

🔢 While Germany, Spain, and Italy remain leaders in total cumulative capacity in 2025, France ranks among the Top 4 solar markets in the EU.

What are the European outlooks for 2030?

Over the past 10 years, the solar landscape in the EU has changed—and it will continue to evolve in the years ahead. By 2030, the European Union aims to reach 718 GW of installed solar capacity. By revising its initial target of 750 GW downward, the EU is relying on projections from the so-called “central” Scenario 2. To achieve these results, significant resources must be deployed, with nearly 70 GW installed per year on average. This trajectory therefore requires new measures, incentives, and actions from Member States:

• improvement of the electricity system and storage;
• financial support for residential solar;
• streamlined permitting procedures and removal of administrative barriers;
• job creation dedicated to the solar sector;
• reindustrialization to produce locally, strengthening the competitiveness and energy sovereignty of the European Union.

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Even though the EU is not targeting Scenario 1 (“high”) with 810 GW of installed solar capacity by 2030, it is still setting ambitious solar objectives for the decade ahead. While the trajectory has slightly shifted, it maintains strong momentum in favor of photovoltaic development. The European vision centers on strengthening energy independence and supporting the ecological transition.

In your view, which political and industrial levers should be prioritized to reignite Europe’s solar momentum? Share your ideas in the comments! 👇🏻

The photovoltaic fleet in France

Key figures

🔢 In 2024, the French solar market experienced significant growth, with more than 5 GW of additional installed capacity—an all-time record for the country.

🔢 In 2025, large-scale French photovoltaic plants (> 500 kW) showed modest growth in Q2 2025 (+504 MW compared to +460 MW in Q1), with momentum driven more by smaller-capacity installations.

🔢 During the first three quarters of 2025, the majority of the 5.2 GW of new photovoltaic capacity was installed without batteries, compared with only 162 MW with storage.

🔢 The 2030 target was revised from 54 GW during the public consultation last spring to 48 GW in a draft text disclosed in July 2024. According to the latest statements by Minister Roland Lescure, these figures should be stabilized in the coming days (tentatively Friday, February 6, pending the newsletter release).

🔢 At the EU level, targets for 2035 have also been lowered—initially 65 to 90 GW—now to a range of 55 to 80 GW.

The solar sector: impacted, but not sunk!

2025 was not an easy year for the photovoltaic sector, which faced a particularly unstable political and regulatory environment—highlighting persistent tensions around the role of renewable energy in France’s energy mix. And for good reason! The absence of a Multiannual Energy Programme (PPE) and ongoing rumors suggesting that the development of new renewable energy (RE) production capacity might no longer be necessary have weakened the sector. The debate sparked by these issues sent a worrying signal to the photovoltaic industry, which is seeking clear direction. The downward revision of installed capacity compared to the PPE’s initial ambitions has created a lack of visibility for solar stakeholders. This reduction is particularly pronounced for the 2035 horizon, now set within a range of 65 to 90 GW, compared with 75 to 100 GW in the previous version. For 2030, setting a target of 54 GW reflects a more cautious—if not restrictive—approach to the pace of photovoltaic project deployment.

The rush for self-consumption!

In 2025, self-consumption stood out in the French photovoltaic market thanks to its strong growth. Between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025, individual self-consumption installations increased by 32%, accounting for more than 46% of total installed capacity. With over 815,000 installations totaling 5 GW, the French are driving a spontaneous societal dynamic, fueled by new habits such as vehicle electrification and the desire to produce their own energy—and reduce electricity bills.

On a related note, to encourage and enhance the attractiveness of solar installations, the State has introduced a regulatory framework favorable to collective self-consumption projects:

• opening medium voltage to self-consumption operations (previously limited to low voltage);
• regulatory recognition of energy communities;
• clarification of the status of the Organizing Legal Entity (Personne Morale Organisatrice – PMO);
• removal of the obligation for local authorities to create a public utility;
• increased project capacity caps (from 5 MW to 10 MW for projects led by local authorities);
• full exemption from the electricity excise tax for installations below 1 MW.

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Enedis estimates that 1,625 collective self-consumption operations are in service in France, representing nearly 235,300 kVA installed in total by the end of Q4 2025. Breakdown by region:

• 132 active operations in Hauts-de-France;
• 161 in Grand Est;
• 130 in Bourgogne–Franche-Comté;
• 239 in Auvergne–Rhône-Alpes;
• 95 in Provence–Alpes–Côte d’Azur;
• 256 in Occitanie;
• 171 in Nouvelle-Aquitaine;
• 54 in Centre–Val de Loire;
• 65 in Île-de-France;
• 56 in Normandy;
• 134 in Brittany.

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With accelerating electrification, the expansion of energy-sharing mechanisms, and the entry into force of new rooftop installation requirements, self-consumption is emerging as a key energy model within the French ecosystem.